Copyright © 2003 by the European Society of Cardiology.
Regular Articles
Estimation of ten-year risk of fatal cardiovascular disease in Europe: the SCORE project
a Department of Epidemiology & Public Health Medicine, Royal College of Surgeons in Ireland, Dublin, Ireland
b University of Kuopio, Kuopio, Finland
c Institute of Health Studies, The Catalan Department of Health and Social Security, Barcelona, Spain
d Association for Cardiac Research, Rome, Italy
e Department of Public Health, Ghent University, Ghent, Belgium
f National Institute for Health and Medical Research (INSERM), Unit 258, Villejuif, France
g Department of Epidemiology and Health Promotion, National Public Health Institute, Helsinki, Finland
h Institute of Epidemiology and Social Medicine, University of Münster, Münster, Germany
i Institute of Community Medicine, University of Tromsø, Tromsø, Norway
j National Research Centre for Preventive Medicine, Russian Ministry of Health, Moscow, Russia
k Centre for Preventive Medicine, Medical Department M, Glostrup University Hospital, Glostrup, Denmark
l Cardiovascular Epidemiology Unit, Ninewells Hospital and Medical School, Dundee,Scotland, UK
m Norwegian Institute of Public Health, Oslo, Norway
n Section of Preventive Cardiology, Göteborg University, Göteborg, Sweden
o Department of Public Health Sciences, St. George's Hospital Medical School, London, UK
* Corresponding author: Ian M. Graham (project leader), SCORE, Department of Epidemiology & Public Health Medicine, Royal College of Surgeons in Ireland, Dublin 2, Ireland. Tel.: +353-1-402-2434; fax: +353-1-402-2329
E-mail address: igraham{at}amnch.ie
Aims The SCORE project was initiated to develop a risk scoring system for use in the clinical management of cardiovascular risk in European clinical practice.
Methods and results The project assembled a pool of datasets from 12 European cohort studies, mainly carried out in general population settings. There were 205 178 persons (88 080 women and 117 098 men) representing 2.7 million person years of follow-up. There were 7934 cardiovascular deaths, of which 5652 were deaths from coronary heart disease. Ten-year risk of fatal cardiovascular disease was calculated using a Weibull model in which age was used as a measure of exposure time to risk rather than as a risk factor. Separate estimation equations were calculated for coronary heart disease and for non-coronary cardiovascular disease. These were calculated for high-risk and low-risk regions of Europe. Two parallel estimation models were developed, one based on total cholesterol and the other on total cholesterol/HDL cholesterol ratio. The risk estimations are displayed graphically in simple risk charts. Predictive value of the risk charts was examined by applying them to persons aged 45–64; areas under ROC curves ranged from 0.71 to 0.84.
Conclusions The SCORE risk estimation system offers direct estimation of total fatal cardiovascular risk in a format suited to the constraints of clinical practice.
Key Words: Cardiovascular disease • Risk factors • Risk estimation • Europe
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