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European Heart Journal Advance Access originally published online on March 9, 2006
European Heart Journal 2006 27(8):949-953; doi:10.1093/eurheartj/ehi825
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© The European Society of Cardiology 2006. All rights reserved. For Permissions, please e-mail: journals.permissions@oxfordjournals.org

Prevalence, incidence and lifetime risk of atrial fibrillation: the Rotterdam study

Jan Heeringa1, Deirdre A.M. van der Kuip1, Albert Hofman1, Jan A. Kors2, Gerard van Herpen2, Bruno H.Ch. Stricker1, Theo Stijnen1, Gregory Y.H. Lip3 and Jacqueline C.M. Witteman1,*

1Department of Epidemiology and Biostatistics, Erasmus Medical Center, PO Box 1738, 3000 DR Rotterdam, The Netherlands
2Department of Medical Informatics, Erasmus Medical Center, Rotterdam, The Netherlands
3Haemostasis, Thrombosis, and Vascular Biology Unit, University Department of Medicine, City Hospital, Birmingham, UK

Received 1 August 2005; revised 23 January 2006; accepted 16 February 2006; online publish-ahead-of-print 9 March 2006.

* Corresponding author. Tel: +31 104 087 488; fax: +31 104 089 382. E-mail address: j.witteman{at}erasmusmc.nl

See page 893 for the editorial comment on this article (doi:10.1093/eurheartj/ehi651)

Aims We aimed to investigate the prevalence and incidence of atrial fibrillation (AF) in a large European population-based study.

Methods and results The study is part of the Rotterdam study, a population-based prospective cohort study among subjects aged 55 years and above. The prevalence at baseline was assessed in 6808 participants. Incidence of AF was investigated during a mean follow-up period of 6.9 years in 6432 persons. We identified 376 prevalent and 437 incident cases. Overall prevalence was 5.5%, rising from 0.7% in the age group 55–59 years to 17.8% in those aged 85 years and above. The overall incidence rate was 9.9/1000 person–years. The incidence rate in the age group 55–59 years was 1.1/1000 person–years, rose to 20.7/1000 person–years in the age group 80–84 years and stabilized in those aged 85 years and above. Prevalence and incidence were higher in men than in women. The lifetime risk to develop AF at the age of 55 years was 23.8% in men and 22.2% in women.

Conclusion In this prospective study in a European population, the prevalence and incidence of AF increased with age and were higher in men than in women. The high lifetime risk to develop AF was similar to North American epidemiological data.

Key Words: Atrial fibrillation • Epidemiology • Prevalence • Incidence • Population-based studies


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