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European Heart Journal 2002 23(4):294-300; doi:10.1053/euhj.2001.2898
Copyright © 2002 by the European Society of Cardiology.
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Predicting cardiovascular risk in the elderly in different European countries

S. Houtermana, H.C. Boshuizenb, W.M.M. Verschurena,f1, S. Giampaolic, A. Nissinend, A. Menottia,e and D. Kromhoutf

a Department of Chronic Diseases Epidemiology, National Institute of Public Health and the Environment, Bilthoven, The Netherlands
b Computerization and Methodological Consultancy Unit, National Institute of Public Health and the Environment, Bilthoven, The Netherlands
c Laboratory of Epidemiology and Biostatistics, National Institute of Health, Rome, Italy
d Department of Public Health and General Practice, School of Medicine, University of Kuopio, Kuopio, Finland
e Division of Epidemiology, School of Public Health, University of Minnesota, Minneapolis, Minnesota, U.S.A.
f Division of Public Health Research, National Institute of Public Health and the Environment, Bilthoven, The Netherlands

revised June 29, 2001; accepted July 5, 2001

Abstract

Aims The objective of this study was to develop risk functions for coronary heart disease and cardiovascular disease mortality for elderly men in different European countries.

Methods and Results The FINE Study is a prospective follow-up study of 2170 elderly men aged 65–84 years in Finland, Italy and The Netherlands. During 10 years of follow-up 289 men died from coronary heart disease and 545 men from cardiovascular disease. Risk functions were estimated using logistic regression analysis, in order to take competing causes of death into account. The results of the present study show that total cholesterol and smoking were the most important predictors of coronary heart disease mortality, and HDL cholesterol, systolic blood pressure and smoking of cardiovascular disease mortality. Left ventricular hypertrophy, being subject to coronary heart disease or cardiovascular disease in Finland and The Netherlands and use of antihypertensive medication in Italy, were also important predictors. For estimating the absolute risk of coronary heart disease and cardiovascular disease mortality in the elderly it is necessary to take into account the European country in which they live.

Conclusion Total and HDL cholesterol, systolic blood pressure and smoking remain important predictors of coronary heart disease and/or cardiovascular disease mortality in elderly men, but also left ventricular hypertrophy, being subject to coronary heart disease, use of antihypertensive medication and country are predictive of coronary heart disease and cardiovascular disease risk.

Key Words: Risk functions, elderly, absolute risk, coronary heart disease, cardiovascular diseases

f1 Correspondence: W. M. Monique Verschuren, PhD, Department of Chronic Diseases Epidemiology, National Institute of Public Health and the Environment, PO Box 1, 3720 BA Bilthoven, The Netherlands.


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