Copyright © 2004 by the European Society of Cardiology.
Clinical research
Quantifying the heart failure epidemic: prevalence, incidence rate, lifetime risk and prognosis of heart failure
The Rotterdam Study
a Department of Epidemiology and Biostatistics, Erasmus Medical Centre, PO Box 1738, 3000, Rotterdam, The Netherlands
b Inspectorate for Healthcare, The Hague, The Netherlands
c Department of Cardiology, Erasmus Medical Centre, Rotterdam, The Netherlands
d Department of Medical Informatics, Erasmus Medical Centre, Rotterdam, The Netherlands
Received March 8, 2004; revised June 14, 2004; accepted June 24, 2004 * Corresponding author. Tel.: +31-10-4088294; fax: +31-10-4089382 (E-mail: b.stricker{at}erasmusmc.nl).
AIMS: To determine the prevalence, incidence rate, lifetime risk and prognosis of heart failure.
METHODS AND RESULTS: The Rotterdam Study is a prospective population-based cohort study in 7983 participants aged ⩾55. Heart failure was defined according to criteria of the European Society of Cardiology. Prevalence was higher in men and increased with age from 0.9% in subjects aged 55–64 to 17.4% in those aged ⩾85. Incidence rate of heart failure was 14.4/1000 person-years (95% CI 13.4–15.5) and was higher in men (17.6/1000 man-years, 95% CI 15.8–19.5) than in women (12.5/1000 woman-years, 95% CI 11.3–13.8). Incidence rate increased with age from 1.4/1000 person-years in those aged 55–59 to 47.4/1000 person-years in those aged ⩾90. Lifetime risk was 33% for men and 29% for women at the age of 55. Survival after incident heart failure was 86% at 30 days, 63% at 1 year, 51% at 2 years and 35% at 5 years of follow-up.
CONCLUSION: Prevalence and incidence rates of heart failure are high. In individuals aged 55, almost 1 in 3 will develop heart failure during their remaining lifespan. Heart failure continues to be a fatal disease, with only 35% surviving 5 years after the first diagnosis.
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