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European Heart Journal Advance Access originally published online on January 6, 2006
European Heart Journal 2006 27(8):936-941; doi:10.1093/eurheartj/ehi694
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© The European Society of Cardiology 2006. All rights reserved. For Permissions, please e-mail: journals.permissions@oxfordjournals.org

Incidence and mortality risk of congestive heart failure in atrial fibrillation patients: a community-based study over two decades

Yoko Miyasaka1, Marion E. Barnes1, Bernard J. Gersh1, Stephen S. Cha2, Kent R. Bailey2, Walter Abhayaratna1, James B. Seward1, Toshiji Iwasaka3 and Teresa S.M. Tsang1,*

1Division of Cardiovascular Disease and Internal Medicine, Mayo Clinic, 200 First Street SW, Rochester, MN 55905, USA
2Section of Biostatistics, Mayo Clinic, Rochester, MN, USA
3Cardiovascular Division, Department of Medicine II, Kansai Medical University, Osaka, Japan

Received 26 June 2005; revised 24 November 2005; accepted 1 December 2005; online publish-ahead-of-print 6 January 2006.

* Corresponding author. Tel: +1 507 266 4130; fax: +1 507 284 3968. E-mail address: tsang.teresa{at}mayo.edu

See page 895 for the editorial comment on this article (doi:10.1093/eurheartj/ehi756)

Aims We sought to determine whether the incidence of and survival following congestive heart failure (CHF) in patients with atrial fibrillation (AF) have changed over time.

Methods and results Olmsted County, Minnesota residents diagnosed with first AF during 1980–2000 were identified and followed in medical records to 2004. The trends of incidence and survival of CHF over time were assessed. Of the 3288 subjects (mean age 71±15 years) diagnosed with first AF and without CHF prior to or at AF diagnosis, 790 (24%) developed a first CHF during a mean follow-up of 6.1±5.2 years (unadjusted incidence, 44 per 1000 person years). Age- and sex-adjusted CHF incidence was unrelated to calendar year of AF diagnosis (P=0.86). The age- and sex-adjusted mortality risk following CHF was higher than that in patients without CHF (hazard ratio 3.4, 95% confidence interval 3.1–3.8, P<0.0001). There were no detectable changes over time with respect to the absolute (P=0.94) or the relative (P=0.68) mortality risk after CHF diagnosis.

Conclusion In this study spanning two decades, there appeared to have been no significant reduction in terms of the incidence and mortality risk of CHF following first AF diagnosis.

Key Words: Atrial fibrillation • Heart failure • Incidence • Prognosis • Epidemiology


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