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European Heart Journal Advance Access published online on September 1, 2005

European Heart Journal, doi:10.1093/eurheartj/ehi483
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European Heart Journal © The European Society of Cardiology 2005; all rights reserved
Received May 24, 2005
Revised July 12, 2005
Accepted August 11, 2005

Clinical research

Left atrial volume predicts cardiovascular events in patients originally diagnosed with lone atrial fibrillation: three-decade follow-up

Martin Osranek 1, Francesca Bursi 1, Kent R. Bailey 2, Brandon R. Grossardt 2, Robert D. Brown Jr3, Stephen L. Kopecky 1, Teresa S. Tsang 1, and James B. Seward 1*

1 Division of Cardiovascular Diseases, Mayo Clinic, 200 First Street SW, Rochester, MN 55905, USA
2 Division of Biostatistics, Mayo Clinic, Rochester, MN, USA
3 Department of Neurology, Mayo Clinic, Rochester, MN, USA

* To whom correspondence should be addressed.
James B. Seward, E-mail: seward{at}mayo.edu


   Abstract

Aims The objectives of this study were to determine the long-term outcome and the predictors of adverse events in patients originally diagnosed with lone atrial fibrillation (AF).

Methods and results This population-based historical cohort study comprised 46 residents of Olmsted County, MN, USA, with well-documented, clinically defined lone AF and a complete two-dimensional echocardiographic examination. The original echocardiographic videotape recordings were analysed in a blinded fashion for left atrial volume (LAV) and left ventricular ejection fraction. With 1296 person-years of follow-up, the median duration of AF was 27 (first quartile = 24, third quartile = 33) years. Twenty-three (50%) patients developed events. Cerebral infarction occurred in seven patients, myocardial infarction in 11, and congestive heart failure in 16. In a multivariable analysis, patients with indexed LAV ≥32 mL/m2 had a significantly worse event-free survival (adjusted HR, 4.46; 95% CI, 1.56-12.74; P = 0.005). All cerebral infarctions occurred in patients with an indexed LAV >32 mL/m2.

Conclusion Patients originally diagnosed with benign lone AF follow divergent courses based on LAV. Those originally diagnosed with lone AF and normal sized atria had a benign clinical course throughout the long-term follow-up. Patients with increased LAV at diagnosis or later during the follow-up experienced adverse events.

Keywords: Lone atrial fibrillation; Left atrial volume; Echocardiography; Cerebral infarction.
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